[Bolshevik]

Whenever a new quest is released, a new mini-game, that catches the ideas of the population, thousands run straight away to the new ground to gain the knowledge, and possibly money, from being there in the beginning. The past update is a great example of such, the one where the dragon pickaxe was thrown into the game; many people finished the quest within hours, and jumped right into the battlefield, hoping to get a pickaxe to sell for a lot. It's quite the frenzy actually because not only does it create a mayhem in a sense, it also rockets the price of the new item through the ceiling. This is where the problem lays, the frenzy to get the new item that has just come out. Arbitrarily, Jagex sets a decent price on the new item, to give a sort of false sense to the population that once the item becomes somewhat abundant, it'll stay the same price.

However, it turns out to be quite the opposite in fact, because once people realize that the item might not be as easy to get, the price skyrockets. The dragon pickaxe is a perfect example of this because it started at around 2-3M, and within a week or two, was worth something like 16M. Why does Jagex set these prices so low, when they know that the item in fact is going to be hard to get, as it turns out to be? I think what it really comes down to is in fact the frenzy that runs to the new area, that blows the price of the new item through the roof. With so many people clamoring to get one, it becomes more rare, and turns out to be more expensive than probably perceived to be. What in fact makes it so appealing to people that they "need" to have this new item? I understand that something as "bright and shiny" as a dragon pickaxe might send a lot of people to get one, but what I don't understand is that with the introduction of a new area as such, that with so many people there, the frenzy tends to limit the output of cash/items that people actually achieve.

What my final question would be is that with the flux of people in a new area, why do people still insist on going in the hope of getting this new item? True, it might become really expensive over time, but in reality, what is the likelihood of them actually getting one? With such a dim outlook, people still go, and I'm still baffled as to why.

Discuss.

[Killgreedy]

Bolshevik, on 06 November 2009 - 01:56 AM, said:

Whenever a new quest is released, a new mini-game, that catches the ideas of the population, thousands run straight away to the new ground to gain the knowledge, and possibly money, from being there in the beginning. The past update is a great example of such, the one where the dragon pickaxe was thrown into the game; many people finished the quest within hours, and jumped right into the battlefield, hoping to get a pickaxe to sell for a lot. It's quite the frenzy actually because not only does it create a mayhem in a sense, it also rockets the price of the new item through the ceiling. This is where the problem lays, the frenzy to get the new item that has just come out. Arbitrarily, Jagex sets a decent price on the new item, to give a sort of false sense to the population that once the item becomes somewhat abundant, it'll stay the same price.

However, it turns out to be quite the opposite in fact, because once people realize that the item might not be as easy to get, the price skyrockets. The dragon pickaxe is a perfect example of this because it started at around 2-3M, and within a week or two, was worth something like 16M. Why does Jagex set these prices so low, when they know that the item in fact is going to be hard to get, as it turns out to be? I think what it really comes down to is in fact the frenzy that runs to the new area, that blows the price of the new item through the roof. With so many people clamoring to get one, it becomes more rare, and turns out to be more expensive than probably perceived to be. What in fact makes it so appealing to people that they "need" to have this new item? I understand that something as "bright and shiny" as a dragon pickaxe might send a lot of people to get one, but what I don't understand is that with the introduction of a new area as such, that with so many people there, the frenzy tends to limit the output of cash/items that people actually achieve.

What my final question would be is that with the flux of people in a new area, why do people still insist on going in the hope of getting this new item? True, it might become really expensive over time, but in reality, what is the likelihood of them actually getting one? With such a dim outlook, people still go, and I'm still baffled as to why.

Discuss.

You know, I really don't know. Maybe they just go for the sense of obtaining it the free way, or to see one of the 'big drops', because of it's value. If I still played, I would go try to get one, just so I can have one, not for the money at all. That's just me though. -Shrug-

[Arno]

Why? Because if they started it out at 16M, the price would have gone up to 50M+ in those same two weeks. If you start out low, you make sure it takes time to get to any higher places. For me, this is the most logical explanation.

As for why people still try to get the rare items. Well, if they didn't, we wouldn't have any rare items to buy. Anyone can get lucky, and that's exactly what all those people think when they suit up and head on out into the hundreds of people who're after the same goal. You can compare it to the Gold Rush in 19th century America. All of a sudden this notion of "find gold and create the American dream" became popular and people from all over the country and all over the world came to test their luck on the American rock hard soil. Did everyone find gold and become insanely rich? No. Did a lot of people? Yes. It's a matter of getting lucky, of being that one person who happens to be in the right spot at the right time. The same can be said for Runescape. Why do all those people go, knowing that not everyone will be able to get, let's say, the dragon pickaxe? Because they never know who does get one and who doesn't. Everyone has the same odds working in their favor and disfavor. So if you don't have a go at it, you'll never know whether or not you could have been a part of that first rush and you could have made big bucks.

Me personally, I never ever rush myself for the new updates. Most of the times I don't even read the update post and so I don't know what it's about to begin with. When the frenzy cools down, I might have a look, see if it's up my alley or not. I really do not like wasting my time like that. I know I could be that one lucky person who gets an amazing drop, but I don't really care about the drops, so that makes it hard for me to care about being the first one to get it. I just sit back, watch everything happen from afar and from time to time a laugh. And then maybe after half a year, I'll buy the "rare" drop from the G.E. and I'll have a blast with it! Just like I did with the Bandos Godsword. I could have bought it when it first came out, but I just didn't care enough. Now I have one and I like it a lot, even though it's already "old" and "outdated".

People like to be exclusive, in whatever they can. Remember the Harry Potter frenzy? Everyone wanted to be the first person to have read it, so they could make a Youtube vid about it and be some kind of hero, I guess. For ages they stood in line, waiting to get their hands on the last book to be published, just so they could tell everyone they were there when it was released and they were amongst the firs to have read it. I thought that was pretty stupid. But still, thousands of people stood in those lines. In the cold, in the rain, outside, they stood in those lines for many hours. And for what? A book. Where am I going with this? Well, keep in mind that this Harry Potter thing happened in real life, so it required people to actually travel a real distance and stand in the real cold to be exclusive. Well, in Runescape you only have to be on-line at the right time and it requires nothing more than a few clicks and maybe an hour of Questing. That is so much easier! Most of those people were going to play Runescape anyway, so why not be amongst the firs to finish the quest and to be able to post that reward picture on RSC? And so, a lot of them do.

This also got me thinking about how I often need a lot of motivation and zeal to get me started on something. This frenzy is probably necessary for some people to get motivated again. I know I do. Like, it took a lot of encouragement from Vegury to get me playing Runescape again. So if I had something that really buzzed my nerves, I'd start playing again. I think a lot of players are waiting for that one good update that will draw them back into the game. Like in the old days when a new skill was released or a new mini-game was released. Those were the best Runescape times for me, because I could stay up for hours and hours just so I would not miss that frenzy, that warm feeling you get, the adrenaline rush, the happiness of having something new, of talking about it with your friends. These days I don't experience that a whole lot, maybe due to me having grown up and caring less.

[Free Fiese]

Some people just want to make fast cash, if u can get 1 drop worth 16M, why not take a shot? Others preffer the 'safe way', hundreds of hours collecting resources and sell those for the same amount of money. The thing with hunting for big drops is, you never know when u will get one, if u get one at all.

A personal example: I've been playing this game for like 3 years on a daily basis, and I know a lot of monsters drop shield half's. Me? I never got one, and I've killed thousands and thousands of monsters. Then a couple days ago, I read this log of some guy claiming to play 1,5 years, and he had 4 pictures of shield half drops in his log.

It's just luck, and some people are willing to try, while others (like myself) preffer the 'safe way'.

But, I think that's not something that has to do with D pick, people are just after that, so they can showoff with it, because not a lot of people have it, especially not when the item is just released.

The D pick is more of a brag-case then a moneymaking-case.

[Hedgehog]

Why do people try to get these new items? Because it's thrilling. When a new item comes out, especailly one as big as the dragon pickaxe, it's exciting to think that you could be one of the first to receive one. The reason the price skyrockets so much at the beginning of an item's release is that there's so few of them available. You pay more to have the novelty of being one of the first few to have one. Of course the price goes down over time, as supply of the item increases. The reason Jagex set the price so seemingly low at the beginning is probably because that's the price they expect it to eventually have. Like Arno said, if they set the initial price higher, the price people sell it for when it first comes out would be even higher as well. Plus, it's very difficult for Jagex to accurately predict the price of a new item.

I can't adequately explain it unless you've tried to get an item when it first came out. I remember when the D2H first came out, everyone was at the Chaos Elemental. I don't usually hang around in the Wilderness, but even I went down there for a bit. Even if you realize that it's very unlikely that you'll receive one, it's still really exciting to be there with tons of people when a monster or item first comes out. And even with low odds, it's still exciting just to know that there is that chance that you will get one. And if you are lucky enough to get one, you'll be able to sell it for a lot. It's worth it just for the excitement itself, but the chance of being one of the first to have the item makes it even more so.

[Maxman]

In my honest opinion, I think it has to do with the official 'achievement' of getting a drop if this new item, say the Dragon pickaxe. To me, I'd rather get a drop of a Dragon pickaxe than to just buy it of the Grand Exchange. I feel more of the achievement, than just spending X amount of gp to buy it. Hedge summed it up quite the same to me: the thrill, excitement, achievement to getting a huge drop like this item.

Every update is going to have a frenzy, whether it's a new item, quest, or ground; there are always going to be more players there than usual. That's why some players choose to play on the weekends and/or a few days after the update, because it has less of a frenzy. It's basically the thrill of getting that shiny, red pickaxe as a drop when it's release. It's the fun of RuneScape.

[The duck]

The reason why people still go there, is quite simple.
When something is new, there will be always people that want that item. It happens in real-life (Fashion, cars, Toys), so it obviously also happens in RuneScape.

When something is new, it is ''rare''. You can compare the Dragon Pickaxe example with Fashion Clothes. The price is high at first, but over time, the price lowers. Well, it is not really the same, as the clothes won't go up in price, but you know what I mean.

When something is new or 'rare', people buy it for various reason. To stand out is the most common reason. The previously mentioned clothes are a good example of this. In RuneScape, however, there is another reason. The item has an use. To refer back to the Dragon Pickaxe; The rune pickaxe got a certain speed and such. Dragon is classified higher than rune in RuneScape, so it would mean it is better.
And people know that, so they want it. People head for the location of that item, because they know they can make a profit if they get lucky.

So, it is simple. People want that item, because it is new, or because it has a good use.

[Avicenna]

I am one of those people who generally loves rushing to try a new update, especially when there is a new monster and that new monster drops a valuable item. Why? Well, there are several reasons. The main reason is that Runescape can be an extremely boring game when it comes to hunting monsters hoping for a drop. You kill, kill, kill, kill, kill again and you still have to kill about a hundred (or more) to obtain anything valuable. Especially in the case of lazy and easily bored people like me, killing monsters in a dead area with absolutely no competition is extremely tedious. I despise going to monsters such as abyssal demons and slaying hundreds upon hundreds of them as the clock ticks on. Its tiresome.

What makes me and many others rush forward to a new update is exactly because of the "frenzy" that you describe. Its crowded, its competitive, its exciting. You are not only trying to obtain the golden drop but you are competing with other people for it. I remember when Aquanites were released along with the Amulet of ranging. It was so crowded that it frustrated people so bad that they got tired and left. Me? I loved it! It wasn't just clicking endlessly on the Aquanites trying to kill them or about getting the amulet of ranging; it was about getting the kills faster than other people. I'm someone who loves competition in any form and competeting with other people over a monster or a drop is my personal kind of thing and (I'm sure) a lot of other people's as well

That is the reason why we rush to a new area, monster, minigame, skill, or whatever when it is released. Its not so much of the reward (although that is definitely a part of it) but more of the excitement that the competition gives which can be quite rare in Runescape.

[bear123]

ok the main reason is simple. braging. its the same with real life. everyone always wants the top brand. i remember when summoning came out and everyone was all over it trying to be the highest lv. personaly i didnt care for summoning (still dont) so i found it hiarious to watch everyone rush for charms. when the d pick came out i really wanted one beacuse thats what everyone else wanted too. its like the band wagon effect. if you dont have it your not "cool".its all about showing off and braging.

[iAssasin]

People may feel inclined to rush to a new update for various reasons... the most obvious one being, quite simply, that the update is new . Something fresh and exciting to enjoy in the otherwise bland and repetitive game that we all play. The thrill of competition is also a factor which I'm sure entices people into wanting to be the first to get a certain new drop or kill a new monster. Lastly, the possibilty of wealth. As the OP mentioned, new items start low and sky rocket due to the supply/demand off-balance; most people find the odds better than Godwars I guess.

[Minh]

Many have already stated the most likely reason (in my opinion) as to why this is the problem. Most likely to be one of the first (and only) at the time to have achieved the goal. Why do people train to 200 million experience? They want to be recognized. Before I digress, I will stress the fact that the dragon pickaxe was raised fast due to the people who got them kept them. Only a few people had them, and the people who didn't offered 50-100M street value the first few days. I agree they are pretty rare to get, but there are so many people and it is very simple to try to get. Many people lsed for pickaxes which caused for there to be plenty of dragon picks to be able to keep the price low. The problem is that many people kept them while many people wanted them. This is similar to the "merch" clans that have risen in popularity lately. Many people just need to realize that if you actually USE something, you shouldn't sell it to be honest. With everyone selling things, this causes panic and people don't want to lose money. If you are going to use it, why would you sell it just because you don't want to lose a mil or two. If people would just try not to manipulate prices via the grand exchange and properly played the game, then maybe the prices wouldn't fluctuate in this manner.

[theobymogre]

New things always fascinate people. Also, if the price is originally set very high, people with have higher expectations of the item. Setting the initial price would just raise the peak it reaches soon after being released.
~The

Arno, on 06 November 2009 - 06:17 AM, said:

People like to be exclusive, in whatever they can. Remember the Harry Potter frenzy?

Waiting works out better in the end. Prices go down eventually, the the item becomes common. Patience.
And on a side note, personally, I waited until all the Harry Potter books were out to read any of them. Worked out nicely.

[Bolshevik]

theobymogre, on 07 November 2009 - 02:45 PM, said:

Arno, on 06 November 2009 - 06:17 AM, said:

People like to be exclusive, in whatever they can. Remember the Harry Potter frenzy?

Waiting works out better in the end. Prices go down eventually, the the item becomes common. Patience.
And on a side note, personally, I waited until all the Harry Potter books were out to read any of them. Worked out nicely.

Waiting doesn't really prove the point of the frenzy however, people wanting to get the item quickly as possibly. True, it's a better idea to wait for the item because once it crashes, you can get it for a much cheaper price than before. But, if you get it right away, you get a somewhat satisfaction of having that item early, and might be able to sell it for a higher price, if you don't like if of course.

[theobymogre]

Bolshevik, on 07 November 2009 - 03:02 PM, said:

theobymogre, on 07 November 2009 - 02:45 PM, said:

Arno, on 06 November 2009 - 06:17 AM, said:

People like to be exclusive, in whatever they can. Remember the Harry Potter frenzy?

Waiting works out better in the end. Prices go down eventually, the the item becomes common. Patience.
And on a side note, personally, I waited until all the Harry Potter books were out to read any of them. Worked out nicely.

Waiting doesn't really prove the point of the frenzy however, people wanting to get the item quickly as possibly. True, it's a better idea to wait for the item because once it crashes, you can get it for a much cheaper price than before. But, if you get it right away, you get a somewhat satisfaction of having that item early, and might be able to sell it for a higher price, if you don't like if of course.

Waiting is more the way of those avoiding the frenzy. The frenzy is caused by innate things in the human psyche. We are competitive, even if only subconsciously, and are excited by new things.

[The duck]

theobymogre, on 07 November 2009 - 09:07 PM, said:

Bolshevik, on 07 November 2009 - 03:02 PM, said:

theobymogre, on 07 November 2009 - 02:45 PM, said:

Arno, on 06 November 2009 - 06:17 AM, said:

People like to be exclusive, in whatever they can. Remember the Harry Potter frenzy?

Waiting works out better in the end. Prices go down eventually, the the item becomes common. Patience.
And on a side note, personally, I waited until all the Harry Potter books were out to read any of them. Worked out nicely.

Waiting doesn't really prove the point of the frenzy however, people wanting to get the item quickly as possibly. True, it's a better idea to wait for the item because once it crashes, you can get it for a much cheaper price than before. But, if you get it right away, you get a somewhat satisfaction of having that item early, and might be able to sell it for a higher price, if you don't like if of course.

Waiting is more the way of those avoiding the frenzy. The frenzy is caused by innate things in the human psyche. We are competitive, even if only subconsciously, and are excited by new things.

And would it be a bad thing to follow the frenzy? If you are excited by something new, why would you wait?

Some things are 'in' for only a certain amount of time. Let's take Pokemon for an example.
From 98-02 it was one of the greatest hypes ever. Because I did not have a gameboy untill 02, I experienced that the whole hype was over when I finally got to play it. And that feels stupid. We could also take an example in Runescape; Dragon Claws. Everyone who got the chance to buy them when they were still low in price- fresh at the market and didn't do it, would feel really stupid.

Sometimes, it's better to follow the frenzy.

[Shauly]

No one actually goes to a new area or minigame with the thought in their minds that they will not get the new drop. It can be compared to the mindset of a criminal; almost no thief will steal something if he doesn't think he will get away with it. Even if the thief is delusional, he is certain that he wont get caught. It is the same when players go to a new area. They know some people will be lucky and manage to get the new item, and they have absolutely no reason to believe that it wont be them.

That being said, one has to take into account the fact that new and valuable items are not the only factors that make players try out a new area. After the quest came out, I did the quest and decided to go to the new monsters, not because I thought I would get rich (The picks were only a few mil and I had well over 200 in the bank at that time), but because it was new and I wanted to try it out. In the end, I got a pick after just a few hours, but that was not the main reason I went there. When you have played Runescape for a very long time, you start to get bored of the same old monsters, and if there is a new, potentially entertaining area that might even get you a rare drop, why would anyone not go?

[rubberduck]

You said ‘…many people finished the quest within hours, and jumped right into the battlefield, hoping to get a pickaxe to sell for a lot. It's quite the frenzy actually because not only does it create a mayhem in a sense, it also rockets the price of the new item through the ceiling.’ Along with ‘I think what it really comes down to is in fact the frenzy that runs to the new area, that blows the price of the new item through the roof.’

It seems to me that your central point of those two statements is that more people that are at the site to get the rare drop that less people get it and therefore the prices rise.

However! If the inverse was true then would you have the same results?
Let’s say the quest came out and only 1 person bothered to even do it. He alone would be killing the monsters needed to get the Dragon Pickaxe. You could assume that it would take him a lot longer to kill a monster by himself than a mob of people (multi-combat zone) and therefore you could assume he would get less Dragon Pickaxes.

Let’s put into numbers:
-1 person in all of Runescape soloing X monster for the Dragon Pickaxe for 1 hour.

While

-A mob of 40 people on each world (server) are killing the same monster for the same Dragon Pickaxe for the same amount of time.

What method do you believe would produce a large kill count? And one could assume that a large kill count, over time produces a much larger amount of rare drops.

Evermore let’s pretend that 1 person in all of Runescape decided to kill X monster for Dragon Pickaxes, then he would be in control of all of the Dragon Pickaxes and although he couldn’t set the price for them he could sell only a small amount of them at a time to make them skyrocket in price.

I think it’s clear that a barrage of people killing a monster will make the prices cheaper.

You also asked ‘Why does Jagex set these prices so low, when they know that the item in fact is going to be hard to get, as it turns out to be?’

You can say that a Dragon Hatchet is similar to a Dragon Pickaxe in many ways from its function (mining to woodcutting) to how you are able to get one in game. Therefore if you where to release an item that is very close to the Dragon Hatchet, what item would you base you price off of; A Rune Kiteshield I think not?

And Finally ‘With such a dim outlook, people still go, and I'm still baffled as to why.’
People like to ‘Roll the Dice’ as simple as that.